US Tariffs and the Swiss Real Estate Market: Dampening Effects for 2026

How Trade Tariffs Affect the Real Estate Market

The US has imposed tariffs of 39 percent on Swiss export goods. For the export-oriented Swiss economy, these are not just abstract numbers: Around 70,000 jobs depend directly on exports to the US, of which 50,000 are in the industrial sector. This has direct consequences for the real estate market – even if the connection may not seem obvious at first glance.

The mechanism works through growth, employment, and immigration. If the economy weakens, people lose their jobs or fewer people immigrate to Switzerland. This dampens the demand for housing and thus price dynamics. Analysts at Wüest Partner have quantified this relationship: One percentage point less economic growth corresponds to around 0.69 percentage points less price growth for single-family homes and 0.45 percentage points for condominiums.

More Moderate Price Growth Expected for 2026

Until recently, the situation was comfortable: The Swiss real estate market has recently posted annual price increases of 3 to 5 percent. However, tariff policy is likely to weaken this trend.

According to Bloomberg economists, GDP growth is expected to be only 1.1 percent in 2026, and 1.4 percent in 2025. BAK Economics estimates the tariff-related growth loss at around 0.3 percentage points, while other estimates go up to 0.7 points. As a result, price growth for home ownership in 2026 is likely to be around 2 to 2.5 percent rather than the previously expected 3 percent.

Another drag comes from immigration. If the population grows by only 0.8 instead of 1 percent per year, an important driver of demand is missing. The already tight housing market is therefore likely to ease somewhat – slowly, but measurably.

Building Materials under Pressure

The US tariffs on steel and aluminum are also having an effect on the world markets. Building materials may not come primarily from the USA, but price pressure on international markets indirectly increases the construction costs for new buildings. Projects already in the planning phase may result in higher building costs than originally calculated.

At the same time, the Swiss franc acts as a buffer. In times of global uncertainty, the Swiss currency traditionally appreciates, which dampens imported inflation. For exporting companies, however, a strong franc is an additional burden — further exacerbating the growth problem.

SNB: Policy Rate Could Become Negative Again

As recently as March 2026, the Swiss National Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 0 percent. In view of growing economic risks, however, the market is once again discussing possible rate cuts.

Bloomberg economists expect the SNB policy rate to be in a range of -0.09 to +0.08 percent by 2027. Nomura analysts go even further, forecasting a cut to -0.25 percent. Such a measure would make mortgage costs even more attractive.

For SARON mortgages, a negative policy rate would mean a direct reduction in costs — provided the banks pass along the cut. In the past, financial institutions have used floor clauses to limit the transmission of negative rates. With fixed-rate mortgages, rates also reflect longer-term capital market expectations. As trade policy uncertainty is likely to increase, long-term yields could remain elevated despite a possible SNB easing.

Pharmaceutical Industry as a Stabilizing Factor

One major uncertainty remains the pharmaceutical industry. Medicines are so far exempt from US tariffs. Roche has announced plans to invest 50 billion dollars in US production over the next five years, while Novartis plans to invest 23 billion. These commitments aim to reduce political pressure and secure market access.

If the Swiss life sciences cluster is spared from harsh tariff measures, the economic downturn should remain limited to the upper end of previous estimates. The BAK Economics forecast of a -0.3 percentage point loss in growth applies explicitly under this assumption.

Slowdown, Not a Crash

The Swiss real estate market remains structurally robust: The supply of home ownership remains tight, and demand persists. US tariffs are not a trigger for a broad market correction, but they do noticeably dampen price dynamics.

For 2026, growth in the mid-single-digit range is emerging – less euphoric than in previous years, but far from a downturn. The decisive factor remains the actual extent of the economic damage caused by the tariff policy, as well as the question of whether a possible SNB easing can give fresh impetus to the mortgage market.