SWAP Rate Monitor Switzerland | June 9, 2026 Between hope and renewed escalation

The movement since May 18

Up until early June, swap rates eased for several weeks. The immediate driver was the oil price: Brent dropped from around 109 dollars in mid-May to below 93 dollars last Friday, a decline of over 14 percent in less than three weeks. This price drop did not reflect any physical easing at the Strait of Hormuz, but rather the expectation of diplomatic rapprochement. Since Pentecost, Washington and Tehran have signaled a basic willingness to talk, although key issues remain unresolved: nuclear program, opening of the strait, sanctions.

The markets bought into hope. Swap rates fell.

Over the weekend, Iran fired rocket salvos at Israel again. Brent peaked at 98 dollars on Monday, closing at 94 dollars. Trump's intended 60-day ceasefire is on the brink. The president publicly criticized Israeli counterattacks and called on both sides to show restraint. How often this sentence has already been uttered in this conflict is well known.

The Strait of Hormuz: still closed

The physical state of the strait has not changed since May 18. On May 29, the US military issued new warnings: merchant vessels that do not follow its instructions could be classified as a threat. Two days later, Iranian authorities ordered that all tankers must obtain permission from the IRGC navy. The daily volume of ships passing through the strait, which was about 138 units before the war, has since moved at a fraction of that value.

The oil price decline in recent weeks was a mood phenomenon. No more was being delivered.

The US inflation shock runs deep

US consumer prices rose by 3.8 percent year-on-year in April 2026, the highest figure since May 2023. The core rate was 2.8 percent, clearly above the Fed's 2 percent target. Energy prices rose by 17.9 percent and were responsible for more than 40 percent of the monthly increase. Traders on the interest rate futures markets assign a probability of around 30 percent to a Fed rate hike by the end of the year. Rate cuts are not expected before 2027. A more hawkish outlook from the US Federal Reserve pulls the CHF swap curve higher via global capital market rates.

Swiss inflation: moderate increase, no panic

Inflation is also rising in Switzerland, but remains at a low level. On June 4, the Federal Statistical Office reported an annual inflation rate of 0.6 percent for May 2026, identical to the previous month of April. The main drivers are petroleum products, which increased by 17.7 percent year-on-year, as well as higher rents and hotel prices. ZKB economist Gismondi summed up the findings succinctly: the SNB could take a wait-and-see approach. A rapid rate hike is not to be expected. BAK Economics and UBS share this assessment.

The SNB stays the course

The Swiss National Bank is keeping the key interest rate at 0 percent. The next decision will be made on June 18, 2026. A change is ruled out. The broad banking consensus, represented by ZKB, UBS, BEKB and Hypothekarbank Lenzburg, assumes the key interest rate will remain at this level throughout 2026. SNB President Martin Schlegel has emphasized that the central bank is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market should the franc appreciate excessively. The exchange rate component remains a silent variable in the inflation picture.

What does this mean for mortgage borrowers?

Anyone taking out a ten-year fixed-rate mortgage today pays around 8 to 10 basis points less than at the peak on May 18. For a volume of 800,000 francs, this corresponds to a relief of around 640 to 800 francs per year. Compared to the low on May 7, there is still a premium of 4 to 6 basis points.

SARON remains at minus 0.05 percent. Anyone with a variable-rate loan will not feel these moves for now. According to many economists, adjustments are not expected before 2027.

The pattern of the past six weeks is clear: signals of easing push rates down, escalations bring the increase back within days. Volatility is structural as long as the geopolitical situation remains unresolved.

Outlook: Two decisions in nine days

Tomorrow, on June 10, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the CPI data for May. In view of persistently high energy prices and renewed escalation in the Gulf, US inflation could have risen above 4 percent. Should this be confirmed, today's 0.68 percent on the 10Y swap would likely be history again in short order.

Eight days later, on June 18, the SNB will announce its rate decision. No change in the key rate is expected. But the new conditional inflation forecast from the national bank and its communication regarding the Swiss franc will be closely analyzed by the markets.