SNB Situation Assessment (19.03.2026): National Bank Keeps Policy Rate at 0 Percent

Monetary Policy Course and Price Stability

The SNB is keeping the policy rate unchanged at 0%. Despite a slight increase in inflation to 0.1% in February 2026, the National Bank sees no immediate need for interest rate hikes. Although higher energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East are leading to a somewhat higher short-term inflation forecast (2026: 0.5% / 2027: 0.5%), the medium-term outlook, at 0.6% for 2028, remains clearly within the target range for price stability. For the real estate market, this means a continuation of stable financing costs, accompanied by the SNB's explicit readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary in order to prevent an excessive appreciation of the franc.

SARON Mechanism and the Importance of Floors

With the continuation of the zero interest rate, the SARON remains anchored at the lower bound. The technical design for sight deposit remuneration remains unchanged: balances above a certain limit continue to be subject to a deduction of 0.25 percentage points. Since the SNB is currently not signaling any departure from this policy, contractual floors at 0% remain a central topic for borrowers. As long as the market rate fluctuates or stagnates in negative territory, you as a customer generally pay the full bank margin without being able to benefit from the arithmetically negative base rates.

Economic Slowdown and Affordability

After a volatile previous year, the Swiss economy is proving more resilient than expected, but continues to grow only moderately. The SNB forecasts GDP growth of around 1% for 2026, with a slight improvement to 1.5% expected for 2027. However, uncertainty has increased significantly due to geopolitical risks and possible supply chain problems. In this environment, banks' restrictive lending remains the most important anchor of stability: affordability continues to be assessed using notional interest rates of 4.5% to 5% in order to protect homeowners from external shocks and a possible future interest rate reversal.

Strategic Maturity Structure and Amortization

The current scenario underscores the relevance of diversified financing. Short-term inflation risks due to energy prices could increase volatility in fixed-rate mortgages, while the SARON remains stabilized by SNB policy. Staggering maturities (laddering) remains a viable strategy to avoid having to refinance the entire volume at a time of potential future market disruptions. Given the moderate growth outlook, the goal of a solid equity base (reducing the loan-to-value ratio to 65%) remains the best protection against value fluctuations and rising costs of the second mortgage.